The 2018 F-Series Super Duty Limited is Ford's first $100,000 pickup

I'm pretty sure I know a few guys who will be buying one
(or more) of those pretty trucks :lol:
 
Full size pickups have gone insane. I always look at buying my pickup, but I can never make it past the lease price. In 2008, I leased a Silverado 2LT 4x4 with V8, 20's, cloth bench, and not much else for $259 per month. I could have bought that truck for $23k GMS after incentives. I still kick myself every day for not pulling the trigger and just buying it. Fast forward to 2017, my 2015 Silverado LTZ that I leased for $329 had an off lease buy of $33k. That is 2 years old and 22k miles on it, and still $10,000 more than a new truck in 2008.

I really think full size truck pricing is a house of cards right now. They give away the leases, but jack up the price so much that people are paying for 2-3 year old trucks more than what trucks used to cost new. Try buying a used truck, and that $33k might even have been a deal for my 2015 - that is the crazy part! As long as gas prices hold down, the bubble shouldn't pop. Good for the Big 3 at least, so I am not complaining. It is crazy though.

-Geoff
 
Full size pickups have gone insane. I always look at buying my pickup, but I can never make it past the lease price. In 2008, I leased a Silverado 2LT 4x4 with V8, 20's, cloth bench, and not much else for $259 per month. I could have bought that truck for $23k GMS after incentives. I still kick myself every day for not pulling the trigger and just buying it. Fast forward to 2017, my 2015 Silverado LTZ that I leased for $329 had an off lease buy of $33k. That is 2 years old and 22k miles on it, and still $10,000 more than a new truck in 2008.

I really think full size truck pricing is a house of cards right now. They give away the leases, but jack up the price so much that people are paying for 2-3 year old trucks more than what trucks used to cost new. Try buying a used truck, and that $33k might even have been a deal for my 2015 - that is the crazy part! As long as gas prices hold down, the bubble shouldn't pop. Good for the Big 3 at least, so I am not complaining. It is crazy though.

-Geoff


I agree, I have also noticed the opposite happening.
I have never been able to find a deal on a CRV, in the
last year I have purchased two!

The lower gas prices are holding down the prices on
4 cyl.'s - even the very hot compact SUV's.
 
The whole market of car pricing seems to be off. With inflated sticker prices, leases seem attractive from a cash flow perspective. (Ie lower payment). And its not just trucks, look at a lease vs buy vs residual payment on a malibu, traverse, fusion, etc.

I feel like automakers have had to switch to this Market strategy since the quality of their cars has come a long way in the past decade. I drove my my last Yukon up to a hundred 190,000 miles without any issues.

If more people bought, instead of leasing, they would loose those customers for at least 5 years or possibly more. There are not enough advances in 2-3 model years that would make most people want to trade their car....but people do because their lease is up.

It's no different than what went on with software. Microsoft realized that people are fine using their six to eight year old version of office. So what do you do, turn everything into a subscription basis and create a monthly revenue stream. Good luck trying to find a box version of Microsoft Office that you can own.

You see the same thing in the cellphone market. They are getting to the point where the new features dont justify the price of upgrading from your current phone. Tmobile already has JUMP and other carriers have early upgrade plans.....back on the day most of us were stuck riding out the full 2 years before getting the credit for a new phone.....that had more features and faster.

I think the winner of this "game" will be the automaker who creates a vehicle that is reliable for the duration of the lease term, has customer appeal, is built the cheapest and has the most over-inflated sticker forcing people to lease.

Over building the vehicle is only going to be a losing proposition once the used car market is flooded with quality vehicle's, sub 50,000 miles. This year's disasters are actually going to keep this from happening as quick as what I thought.

The upside is it's great for our local economy until this bubble bursts. The only thing that would change my mind on this business model are advances which would make people want to uptgrade their vehicles sooner ie. fully autonomous vehicles......... but the idea fully autonomous vehicles happening anytime soon is a topic for a whole nother thread
 
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the entire Car finance industry is a bubble

119 Billion is subprime auto loans were wrote in 2016

too many people are getting cars they cant afford, places Like MLC motor cars who will finance anybody even ghosts
 
It's all relative, go spend $60K on a go fast 2 wheel drive weekend car. Spend $200K on a house and have a 20K vehicle. Have a $500K house and a $40-60K vehicle. Ford crossed the line this year, next year GM and FCA will have one that crosses the $100K imaginary boundary to compete.

I just spent what I did on my F250 diesel, ended up cheaper than a new fukin' 150....... :pimp:
 
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A friend just told me last weekend he bought a brand new 2016 chevy pickup, stripped down work truck for $16k w/ employee discount. He bought it last year. Is that possible?
 
So once this bubble pops; are we going to see a whole lot of cheap used vehicles hit the market?

Contingent on many factors before a burst, but if stable work/jobs slump, it'll have a domino effect. Repo ramps up, increased auto thefts, A-B lots begin the cyclical deal scams.
 
I think it is a pretty slow bubble. First, the used market crashes because so many leases are getting turned in. Then that puts pressure on new prices. That was happening big time before the great recession. I still think we are riding high on the cash for clunkers, burning through pent up demand. That deal turned the car market upside down. If you had the right car after cash for clunkers you could make money on it when you turned in the lease. I think the only thing that could derail us in less than 5 years or so would be a gas price spike. That will tank used truck prices instantly.

But hey, enjoy it while it is here! I am saving like crazy and getting everything paid off.Buying the Camaro, then maybe buy my truck off lease . Get all set for the next downturn.

-Geoff
 
If electric trucks become popular and feasible to lease before the next fuel scare, it might change the game. High torque is achievable (already known), but range needs to be optimized for truck use.
 
I agree, I think it will be a softer bubble in the sense that "lightly" used car prices are already enticing when compared to new.

If they fall a little more this will definitely put pressure on new car sales and cause a slowdown in the auto industry. I do think we are closer to 2 years out though regardless of gas prices.

As far as whether the credit side has an apocalyptic meltdown remains to be seen. I actual feel like there is more asset value backing the loans made when compared to the real estate bubble...

Without a crystal ball though it's anyone's guess!

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk
 
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